Category: Patent

The First Mover Advantage of IP: Patents vs. Velocity

Patent Strategy of market leading IT companies normalized for year founded.
Patent Strategy of market leading IT companies normalized for year founded.

Startups and Fortune 100 companies take note: Jeff Bezos is positioning Amazon at the future center all of web commerce.  And he is planning reaches at least 7 years into the future. Earlier this year Amazon said it was experimenting with delivery by drones, dubbed Amazon Prime Air, and details were found on anticipatory shipping before an order is even placed. Despite this being “new” news for the consumer world Amazon actually filed a patent on anticipatory application in 2012, claiming priority to 2004.  So yes, the recently granted US Patent 8,615,473 which covers order fulfillment and shipment of shipping packages before an order has occurred, was contemplated and filed for a patent 10 years ago.

In 2004, Amazon started contemplating filing patents ‘predictive shipping’.  2014 was the year the patent granted and the tech community picked up on their future plans.

This type of advance patent filings seems the norm for Amazon, with another example as the famous “One-click patent” on a method and system for placing an order.  Merits of US Patent 5,960,411 patent aside, which as been re-issues, affirmed or denied at various times by US, Canadian, and European courts, it should be noted since it was filed in 1997 it has been cited over 1670 times by other patents.  It is, by the definition of patent statistics used in academia, considered a highly valuable patent. Amazon has used the ‘411 patent in litigation with Barnes and Noble, who arbitrarily added more clicks to get around the patent, and has actively licensed it to companies such as Apple as far back as 2000.

Patent Holdings for key Tech companies
Patent Holdings for key Tech companies

But not all companies have had the fortune to plan and execute IP in this manner.  Rapid growth combined with IP as a non-core strategic asset has put a few notable companies on the offensive. Both Linked-in and Twitter had under 10 granted patents by the time the IPOs were announced, and for at least Twitter this was seen as a risk to some investors when compared to the volume by their rivals Facebook.  Pre-IPO negotiations by IBM against Twitter resulted in the vast majority of Twitter’s 1800+ portfolios coming mainly from IBM. Facebook’s IP growth has been through acquisition, spending at least $1.6B on acquisitions between IBM, and AOL & Microsoft since 2012.

Google has maintained a more stable growth of IP through filings and of late a $15B combined purchase of IP and Technology has given it key acquisitions such as Nest and Motorola.  Last check gave Google at over 32,000 active patents, their exponential growth of IP not really beginning until after 2001.  This is a far cry from 1994 where at technology inception only four filings were done.  A cursory review of Google’s early patents gives the impression they were filings based on technology in production.  Yahoo’s 5000+ active filings tell the same story of starting small with only 1 filing in their year of inception (1994), 9 in year 2 around web pages, but the filing volume growing exponentially by year 3 of operation.

Organic patent growth from Google, Amazon, and Yahoo show different approaches in the initial years.
Organic patent growth from Google, Amazon, and Yahoo show different approaches in the initial years.

For startups and other high growth companies this outlines two generic paths than an IP plan can evolve from:

  1.  IP Acquisition After Growth, as seen by Twitter, Facebook, and Linked-in.
  2. IP + Technology Strategy, which later moves from organic to include acquisition growth as seen by Google, Yahoo, and Amazon.

Ultimately for market leaders the paths do end up together were IP becomes a critical element of their competitive position. For example, Yahoo’s high growth rate gave it a deep pool to use as a tool against both Google and Facebook when the filed to go public.  However the Facebook offensive position was not such a successful tactic as Facebook used the acquisition of the IBM and Philips patents to countersue Yahoo.

Companies where the high velocity growth of a customer base is key, such as Facebook, Linked-in, and Twitter, are mainly adopting the IP Acquisition After Growth path.  For the ventures where velocity trumps IP, as growth occurs planning for future cash to deal with the problem is a viable solution.

However focusing on the path of IP + Technology Strategy gives some valuable lessons for startups to consider.  Consider the organic portfolio growth rate of Amazon, Google, and Yahoo of the, or filings by the original company and not those added through acquisition: comparing filings since 1994 indicates their actual patent growth rate varies but the business approach is the same when looking at the overall portfolio to date – small to moderate growth in the initial years of the company and a high exponential after 2002 for all involved. A more detailed view of the years prior to 2002 shows similar corporate trend of the startup years 1 and 2 having less than 5 filings, and a mini-exponential trend starting at years 3 of operation and beyond where patent filings per year jump above 30 filings per year for some ventures.  Google is the notable exception, taking until its 6th year of operation to rapidly increase the filings.

Organic patent filings by priority year.
Organic patent filings by priority year.

While the filing trends are relatively similar a key difference can be seen in the portfolio content, specifically with Amazon.  As a reference point by the time the one-cick ‘411 patent was filed in 1997 Amazon had $148M in revenue and 1.5 million customers, after experiencing rapid expansion during its launch only 2 years earlier.  Even at Amazon’s inception in 1995, the first year of operation saw several patents by Jeff Bezos and his team filed around topics such as secure communications of credit cards over non-secure networks.  Looking forward into Amazon’s growth we can see the two IP Strategy paths are coming together: with Amazon how having over 4400 patents their strategy stepped up again in 2012 when they added a Patent Acquisition & Investment leader to their team.  Through this we can see how Amazon is continually building IP into their DNA, making it an integral part of the corporate strategy.

The important lesson in the first few years Amazon’s patent position is rooted around Jeff Bezos long term plan on owning the web. As outlined in the Steven Levy article in Wired Magazine (2011), Bezos highlights an important point for startups and large ventures to heed, which was present in the shareholder letter he penned back in 1997.

“But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that. Just by lengthening the time horizon, you can engage in endeavors that you could never otherwise pursue. At Amazon we like things to work in five to seven years. We’re willing to plant seeds, let them grow—and we’re very stubborn.”                  – Jeff Bezos

Looking at the long term Bezos pushes Amazon to work in the 5 to 7-year horizon.  More impressively he has had the patience to align his patent filings in the same way, and is still doing so if we use the proxy of “predictive shipping” patents filed in 2004 that was recently uncovered as a future Amazon service.

So what lesson can startups take from this?

For startups and other high growth ventures that choose to focus on the IP + Technology Strategy path of IP evolution this provides some guidance on how successful portfolios for pure software based organizations started.  A take-away action for CEO’s is to have a discussion with their board and leadership team about their IP strategy plan.  The conversation can be simplified down the question about portfolio allocation and coverage.

Key Question:  Does our IP strategy allocate protection for today, tomorrow, and the future’s competitive markets?

Allocating a portion of the portfolios future technology position at company inception, even if the filing volume is fairly low, positions the venture’s portfolio well ahead of the evolving marketplace.  This approach also mitigates the risk that exists in the technology industry where software releases are growing 2-3x faster than the patent office can pace with.  In short, it provides support for the “quality” aspect to a portfolio even if the volume is small in the first few years.

As growth happens and the marketplace becomes more saturated with sustaining technology, the ventures will have already identified and filed for protection for new disruptive technologies and processes that will become a fundamental piece of the market.  The result of aligning a 7-year plan with IP is a granted portfolio that is positioned to be relevant in the 10+ year timeline.

For the pace of filing in the first years of a software based startup, the data shows a modest number of filings in the first 2 years of operation, and year 3 of operation was where the high growth of filings occurred.  However considering the increased pace of technology growth now compared to the 1998-2000 time frame it is not unreasonable to consider 2 years of operation now happening in 6 months of development.  A rapid decrease in the barriers for new ventures to start and launch means the IP Strategy must adjust for this new environment.

Followup Question: Are the patent filings focused on pure technical coverage for today’s technical solutions, or is there room in the filings to reposition the IP as the market evolves by covering solutions to our future disruptive technology?

Over time markets evolve and technology advancements catch up with customer pain points.  What historically took years of development can now be created and released on a global scale in months, yet the 20 year life of a patent still remains the same.  With this 20 years of life, spending time answering these questions and positioning an early portfolio could be the difference between the venture paying out in the face of  competitive IP pressure or reaping the financial and market benefits as patent ownership becomes a critical success factor in the industry.

Do Startups Need Patents?

Most blogs and websites have short posts, enough for a soundbite, but not enough to sustain any depth of conversation. However there are a few exceptions.  This week Jackie Hutter at IP Maximizer Asset Blog posted a good article entitled “Do Startups Need Patents? Rigorous Study Presents Real Data on Startup Company Patenting Behavior“.  I am not going to summarize it because it would encourage you to go read her post in its entirety. It has some great soundbites, but also some in-depth discussion and commentary to help startups understand why patents should be filed.

What is most interesting is her comments are supported by a data driven study by author Stuart Graham, a Georgia Tech Business School professor who from 2010-2013 served as Chief Economist of the US Patent Office, entitled “High Technology Entrepreneurs and the Patent System of the 2008 Berkeley Patent Survey” (published in the Berkeley Technology Law Journal and available in this link).  Graham’s article is quite long, but also worth a review.

As a service provider (consultant, lawyer, patent agent, mentors, startup advisers, etc.) I always find it somewhat egotistical for the profession to always be proclaiming “Everyone needs patents!” without giving a valid business reason why, and more pointedly without giving a business reason that is based on more than personal experience or a few selected tidbits of A little startup beats a huge multinational with a patent story we see summarized in the news. As such I find empirical data to backup logic is always beneficial.

This type of post and data it links to is the type of information business and IP advisers can use for their clients on the importance of IP in their business strategies. It is also beneficial for resource and cash strapped startups to see why it gives a good reason to prioritize IP as a fundamental piece of the strategy from the beginning and not have it as a ‘checkbox’ to say it was done.

Strategic Patenting Decisions and their Influence on Firm Patent Valuation

In 2005 I did a thesis-option for my Masters in the area of IP Strategy.  I was going to submit it for publication back then, but graduation + the general busyness of life happened and it was put on the “probably will not get done” list.  However, my research was driven in part by business reasons -I really wanted to understand patenting differences between large & small firms – and more importantly how can a small firm with relatively smaller resources get “more for their money” by having more valuable patents. Those in the patent field realize that small firms have less experience than large firms, as measured by filed applications – but I wondered was it by enough to statistically compare the two groups?

The ultimate driver was to help small and medium size firms, as well as smaller groups in a large multi-national, approach IP from a strategic view and generate a higher volume of “valuable” patents.  There will be a volume of discussion on what “value” is defined at but for the purposes of this paper I used citations as a proxy for value. While the dataset is quite old and could be updated to see if the conclusion changes, I suggest the general trends are probably still valid.

A PDF of the paper is available here, and the abstract and some take-away points are listed below.


Abstract:

The economic rents associated with patent portfolios are highly skewed with only a small portion having value. This leads researchers and industry to ask what early strategic patenting decisions around the patent itself will impact the future value of the patent, specifically within the context of small firms. To address this question the paper modeled these ex-ante strategic patenting decisions by using a common measurement of forward citations as a proxy for patent value. Six indicators were modeled with two of them, provisional basis and priority claim, not explicitly investigated in previous research.

A focus on the small firm as well as the two strategic patent decision indicators provisional basis and priority claim are areas that have not been explicitly investigated in previous research.

A stronger relationship was found for small firms with indicators of breadth and priority claims, as compared to a weaker relationship of only claim counts for large firms. Research also indicated that from a small firm management perspective the most potential valuable patent is one that covers a broad scope of technology is a new filing and does not claim priority to other applications.

Take Away Points (or what Academia confirms with reality):

How can I apply this to my firm? Small firms can benefit from this research by seeking to increase the value of their future patent portfolio by filing new patents that do not claim priority to other applications, yet cover a broad scope of technology.

How should I change my filing strategy? Dont’ just churn them out. Simply having a patenting strategy that is focused on creating large patent portfolio counts, or having a standard procedure to patent all innovations across a pre-defined batch of jurisdictions will not necessarily lead to a portfolio with a high volume of valuable patents. They must consider each new innovation separately and make filing decisions accordingly and not based on pre-determined business decision procedures.

Can small firms really make a difference by patenting things? Does their lack of patenting experience matter? Although small firms have less patenting experience than large firms as seen by their experience distribution plots, surprisingly the firms patenting experience was not a significant predictor in the model. This suggests to industry that small firms with little or no patenting experience still have potential to create valuable patent portfolios from inception.

In Pursuit of Patent Quality

If you informed any R&D executive that only 5% of their efforts may result in some value for their products, and any value they did create within that 5% would be worth the entire value of the company, there would be quite a few nervous R&D executives waiting to explain to the CTO why they are wasting so much of the company resources to generate so little.

IP Strategy Patent Value Distribution
IP Strategy Patent Value Distribution

Now, taking the same stance as patents, why is a 5% value acceptable? Is it lack of business drive to grow relevant IP, inability to execute on generating quality patents, or just acceptance of the “status-quo game of IP”?

Research (and experience) validates that generally about 5% of a patent portfolio volume holds 95% or more of the value for a business.   I would propose that the strategy of randomly filing patents based on generated ideas or shipped products actually generates even less value than 5%.

Here are some back of the envelope estimates as to why a random strategy will not generate any value, arguably close to 5%:

Taking some rough numbers and assume only 20% of a mature R&D organization’s ideas get turned into final products, and of that estimate generously that 50% would be protected by IP, that gives:

20% x 50% = 10% patent coverage of all possible generated ideas.

Now, again consider that only 5% of a portfolio has value, that gives:

10% x 5% = 0.5% patent coverage of all possible ideas generated by the venture have value.

It is fairly rough, and discounts a large number of variables, but is a simple way to illustrate that while a venture may believe they have 50% of their products protect by patents, in reality they only have about 0.5% of all possible ideas they generated protected by patents. Playing with the rough numbers will change the results slightly, but still give the same order of magnitude to consider.   Next, and more importantly to consider, who is to say along the R&D process that out of all the ideas that were dropped, there did not exist most of the “valuable 5%” patents?

A good patent strategy still needs to have real market applicable patents that can be used to at least defend, license, or enforce.

This now begs the questions: Who in your venture is taking the cancelled product ideas, which may be dropped due to financial or resource issues, but have the potential to be future game changers? How early in the patent process is mining (and prosecution) happening? Fundamentally, where does IP execution happen in the business? If it starts – and finishes – at a product release, I would expect to be called into the CTO’s office and explain why I was wasting so much of the company resources to generate so little potential returns with IP.

Execution of a patent strategy to generate a high number of valuable patents has to have many points to mine ideas in the Innovation, R&D, and Product Release stages. With this type of model it affords the IP Manager, Legal, and CTO to be in a better position to ensure they can chose the best innovations to protect.

Patent Strategy: Standing on the shoulders of giants.

patent strategy innovation books

When I began my venture into the world that is now known as IAM, there was little mention of patents in the boardroom, the phrase “Patent Troll” had yet to be coined, and business model of Intellectual Ventures was merely a concept in Nathan Myhrvold’s mind.

Almost 15 years ago I was tasked with building a patent portfolio for a SME, so I set out to see how this could be done – and I found out that you cannot learn about Patent Strategy from a single book… and to complicate matters, there wasn’t very many books to even chose from. There were no “IP Consultants”, few local mentors that knew about IP, and even less accessible industry knowledge to lean on.  For literature in this area the closest book about planning was Rembrandts in the Attic, which was more a call to arms for CEO’s about buried IP potential than a guide on how to actually deal with IP, followed by a wide gap, and finally more verbose literature around licensing structure and joint ventures.  But this wide gap was where I set out to immerse myself in – to find out the HOW of IPHOW to create a portfolio of value to setup a license program; HOW to be a IP leader in your industry; HOW to generate relevant patents that can be actually used in the business, without bankrupting a small R&D budget. Of course in the 1990’s the model IBM portfolio was often a goal but it is simple economics that dictates SME’s can’t file 5,000 patents per year, and cover enough technology to generate $1B in license fees.  The SME’s have to start somewhere, and this is the HOW that I endeavored to find.

Along the way I was shaped by a few dozen books, took a detour into Academia for my own research and wrote a thesis on Business Patent Filing Strategies for Startups and SME’s for my MBA (available upon request!), and then expanded my knowledge base to include the link of Innovation-to-IP. In practice innovation and IP truly go hand-in-hand because while the first endeavors to create the next unique technology, the latter focuses on ensuring protection and rents be generated from the work.

Looking back I realize that to really understand an be in a position to talk about Patent Strategy, one has to have a fundamental grasp of how a firm’s potential IP interacts with the business and the market,  and then be able to move from discussion to execution of a patent portfolio that sits at this legal/market/technical intersection.

“IP professionals cannot explain how IP creates value they do not deserve to be in the boardroom” – Ralph Eckardt  #IPBC13

For me this means understanding the entire lifecycle of  IP: from (Innovation), how IP is managed (Mechanics of Patents & Licensing), where the business needs positioned (Approaching IP from a Business View), and where your company is growing (Thought Leadership & Business).  Merely reading a “Patent Strategy” book will not help one create and develop a quality patent portfolio, because it needs created in the specific market and company environment.

Below is the top 50 books I’ve read over the years, but if I could offer a shortlist to start based on the amount of marks & notes I have on them, it would be as follows:

1)  Edison in the Boardroom: How Leading Companies Realize Value from Their Intellectual Assets (Davis and Harrison).  This has been my ‘go-to’ book for over 10 years, mostly because it gives a good business primer on IP and follows with tangible steps and goals for a business to focus on. For training new business/IP team members or running an IP centric workshop it gives some common ground for terminology and quickly aligns the participants to a similar reference point. More importantly it gives the reader some references and structure to talk about the need for IP Management in the boardroom.

2)  The Innovator’s Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book That Will Change the Way You Do Business (Christensen).
How do you know what disruptive innovation is and the potential it has, if you have never seen it before? How will you change your processes to recognize these as core patentable topics for your portfolio? More importantly, are you building your patent portfolio around a disruptive (or unique) technology early enough? Understanding how disruptive innovation works is a benefit to those that need to mine and identify IP trends in their business and competitors.

3)  Invisible Edge: Taking Your Strategy to the Next Level Using Intellectual Property (Blaxill & Eckardt).  The authors lay out a substantive case for the importance of IP, as well as lay out that businesses in the post-industrial and knowledge based economy must look to IP as a sustainable advantage for longevity.  This book, combined with some of the tools in Edison, give the reasoning to talk IP in the boardroom with executives as well as initial toolkit to jumpstart a patent program.

The reading list below is broken down into 6 main sections. I wouldn’t say every book is essential or even more useful than not, however the totality of the knowledge in them is what brings the understanding to the reader.

1) On approaching IP from a business view, and being able to talk about IP in the boardroom:

 2)  On the Mechanics of Patents & Licensing:

3) On Innovation, and ensuring your patented technology flows from a solid foundation:

4) On Thought Leadership & Business:

5) On Patents in Academia:

6) I have the following books on my “to read” list, that look fairly interesting:

My reading list is ever expanding. If you have a book I missed and feel it will contribute, don’t hesitate to add it in.